Three talking points ahead of the Wallabies vs Springboks TRC test

Round one of the 2024 Rugby Championship is just under forty hours away as the Wallabies and Springboks gear up for a titanic clash at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.

Unlike any other Stadium in Australia, Suncorp has been a futile hunting ground for the Boks over the years as it borders on being somewhat of a house of horrors for the World Champions.

Securing just one win in Brisbane, which came back in 2013, the Boks have had some dark days at the venue, particularly their 49 – 0 drubbing back in 2006.

Since then, the aggregate score between the two sides at the venue has been 23 – 18 in favour of the Wallabies, with the Boks dominant 38 – 12 in 2013, skewing the numbers somewhat.

For a squad who have accomplished so much, including one Rugby Championship, a Lions Series and back-to-back World Cups, this Springbok side needs to set the record straight both in Brisbane and in the Championship if they are to match the great All Blacks side of 2010-2018.

In head coach Rassie Erasmus, they have just the man to design a resolute plan to take this step and as such it is up to the players to perform week-in, week-out over the next seven weeks.

Reverting back to the here and now, below are three key areas that will decide the outcome of the match in Brisbane.

Law Changes
Continually looking to improve the Rugby product, World Rugby, in conjunction with SANZAAR, will be trialing new law variations in this year’s Championship. Front and centre of these changes has been the introduction of a ‘shot clock’ at scrum time. This change will require forwards to set up a scrum within 30 seconds of the referee providing the mark for both teams. Failing to do so will result in a free-kick against the team that is deemed to have caused the delay. Speaking about the changes during the week, star Springbok loosehead Ox Nche said he felt the changes would not be an issue for his side despite a thought process that it may limit the impact of the Bok’s ‘bomb squad’. “It shouldn’t be a problem. We had a look at all our scrums even before the law changed, and we were always there by the referee and ready to go way before the 30 seconds, so it shouldn’t be a problem for us. We will have to adapt, and we did speak about it and made plans for it, so we’ll just simply adapt, but it shouldn’t be a problem for us.” Nche said. This change will undoubtedly have been looked at by Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt who earlier in the week said “Yeah, I think if you ask the players, they feel pretty fatigued at times. There is still fatigue in the game and if a ‘Bomb Squad’ member comes on at half-time, they’ve still got to play 40 minutes. One of the challenges is to keep players moving from set-piece to set-piece. With the new law trials, 30 seconds to set a scrum, 30 seconds to have that line-out underway, 60 seconds, not 90 seconds, for a conversion now. Some of those times are being contracted a little bit and maybe that will impact on the size of the player. There are risks. Talking to Vern Cotter, who is obviously a good mate of mine, around the Blues this year, with a 6-2 split they got two injuries very early on in their backline and played a half-back on the wing for the whole of the second half. You can get stung by it, so any innovation is great until it’s not.” Reading between the lines, this quote could be an indication of Schmidt’s plans to minimise the impact of the set piece, which was an area that Wales capitalised on against the Wallabies in July. Adding further complexity to the changes is the Bok’s selection for the weekend, with Erasmus opting for a 6-2 split once again on the bench. In addition to the scrum changes, this year’s Championship will see the new red card law come into effect. This change is designed to limit the impact that a sending-off has on the contest by ensuring a team can bring on a replacement player after twenty minutes of being down a player.

Bok Power Game
Touching upon this point above, Australia struggled mightily against Wales in the close quarters, in particular in the second test. During that match, Wales scored two maul tries in the space of eight minutes through hooker Dewi Lake. At scrum time and line-out, the Wallabies were good, albeit against a very underwhelming Welsh side. On the flipside, the Boks were exceptional against Ireland as they reduced the normally resolute Irish scrum to a 56% win rate in the second half. Central to this was the impact of Nche, who twisted up Irish star Tadhg Fulong whilst Frans Malherbe held off Andrew Porter. One would expect the Boks to get on top early in this department. At line-out time, both sides are exceptional and as such this should be a good contest and one in which the Wallabies should compete heavily to avoid the power of the Bok’s maul.

Wallabies Resilience 
One area in the match that stats can’t measure is resilience, and in this department, Schmidt’s effect is already palpable. Against Wales, the Wallabies endured periods where they misfired and allowed their opponents back into the match. Against the Boks, it will not be moments of dominance but rather long periods of time, given South Africa’s ability to retain possession and get over the gain line. To nullify this, the Wallabies will need to get after the South African breakdown, which has been susceptible to turnovers, with Ireland earning fifteen turnovers in their matches in July, whilst the Wallabies won twelve against Wales. Again, this is a Joe Schmidt area, with his attention to detail being lauded as the key to success during his time with Ireland and the All Blacks, as both times were laser-accurate in this department. If the Wallabies can get after the Boks breakdown and earn a few turnovers, it could frustrate the World Champions, and the longer they remain in the contest, the more doubt may creep in at a venue that has been a graveyard for many great Springbok teams.